Rink Report

Not surprising.

2006-05-03T04:41:00.000-07:00

The results of the Primary are in. Nothing real surprising. Jean Schmidt won, as Bob McEwen was never able to overcome the carpetbagging objections. Blackwell won, which was expected. The real surprise was that Sandy O'Brien beat Jennette Bradley.

Back from TDI.

2006-05-01T07:53:00.000-07:00

My wife and I spent Saturday and Sunday at the Tactical Defense Institute http://www.tdiohio.com. This was my wife's first time, and my fourth or fifth time visiting. We took (I audited) Handgun I and Handgun II. We stayed at the phenomenal MurphinRidge Inn http://www.murphinridgeinn.com/ and had an excellent dinner on Saturday night. Both places: Highly Reccomended.

Enquirer Blog: Today is Schmidt-McEwen day at the OEC.

2006-04-27T07:02:00.000-07:00

http://frontier.cincinnati.com/blogs/gov/2006/04/thursday-is-schmidt-mcewen-day-in.asp

The Enquirer Bloggers posted this on Tuesday. Thought it was a good time to bring it back up. Congresswoman Jean Schmidt is up on charges brought by McEwenite and COAST guy James Urling. Urling's charges are that Congresswoman Schmidt lied about her college degrees and lied about endorsements on her website.

Congresswoman Schmidt's camp has charged McEwen with making false and misleading statements. Additionally, McEwen's voting residency has been questioned, based upon an Enquirer expose that showed him living in Fairfax Station, Virginia, while being registered to vote in Ohio at the homes of women with whom he did not live.

Results when they are in, and I have a chance to post them.

Edit: Complaint against McEwen dismissed on a 3-1 vote.

McEwen sinks more money into his Quixotic Quest.

2006-04-26T15:55:00.000-07:00

According to FEC records, Bob McEwen has loaned his campaign another $52000. That must be putting him at near 1/2 million, including last year's race. I wonder how long it will take him to pay off the mortgages he has taken out on his Fairfax Station, Virginia home to pay for his campaign?

Bizzyblog: NTU rates Ohio members of Congress. Bizzyblog calculates Schmidt's rating.

2006-04-26T13:25:00.000-07:00

http://www.bizzyblog.com/?p=1460

From one of the best.

Politics Extra: From Terrace Park to the ball park

2006-04-26T13:14:00.000-07:00

Politics Extra: From Terrace Park to the ball park

Nice to be kept updated about Portman. I'd love to see him run for President someday.

McEwen: Attack Ad Desperation.

2006-04-26T13:11:00.000-07:00

We received an attack ad today in the mail. McEwen is at it again.

Politics Extra: McEwen kicks $52,000 into his race

2006-04-26T12:57:00.000-07:00

Politics Extra: McEwen kicks $52,000 into his race

From the Cincinnati Enquirer Blog. Seems like McEwen is going into a lot of debt.

1st Bloggy Post. Republishing of my 2nd Report

2006-04-26T12:12:00.000-07:00

In this 2nd Edition of The Rink Report, we are examining the 2nd Congressional District Republican Primary race, which is just days away.

Challenger Bob McEwen, a Congressman from the Sixth Congressional District from 1981 until the start of 1993 seems to be in a lot of trouble in this boistrous race. According to a Survey USA poll released recently, McEwen trails Congresswoman Schmidt by 23%. This follows a generally bad period for McEwen, after the Cincinnati Enquirer raised questions on Easter Sunday about McEwen's possibly illegal practice of living in Virginia while voting in Ohio. Records showed that McEwen registered to vote, and voted from homes owned by women with whom he did not live, all the while living in Fairfax Station, Virginia. McEwen bought a Second District condominium apartment in Anderson Township about a year ago. Also coming to light was the fact that McEwen was a lobbyist for the government of Eritrea. Eritrea, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, has a record of persecuting Christians and spying on religious services. McEwen, who was paid $15,000 a month for his lobbying services, claimed that his residence was in Virginia on Department of Justice documents related to working for a foreign entity. According to the Plain Dealer, McEwen said that his lobbying efforts were related to stabilizing the Etiopian-Eritrean border, after a war. This came at a time when Congresswoman Schmidt's educational records were being questioned about what degrees she had or had not earned from the University of Cincinnati.

Challenger McEwen, a former Congressman who turned his connections into a lucrative career as a Virginia/DC based lobbyist raised $164,860 last reporting period, and a total of $166,360 for this election cycle. The McEwen Campaign spent $162,515 during the reporting period, and a total of $166,517 for the cycle. According to The Rink Report's reading of the filings, the McEwen campaign's major expenses included $74,085 to "Strategic Media Group" in Washington. Major McEwen endorsements include Phil Burress, Jack Kemp, and Gun Owners of America. McEwen had $52,920 on hand as of the end of the reporting period.

It is interesting to note the timing of certain expenses. On April 3, Survey USA and WCPO released a poll that showed Congresswoman Schmidt leading McEwen by 25% of the vote. The very next day, McEwen paid $7100 to TelOpinion Research, a polling company. The Report has not seen this poll, and assumes that the McEwen campaign chose not to release it. Two days later, the McEwen campaign paid $3750 to Zogby, another polling company. The results of that poll were released, and showed Congresswoman Schmidt leading Bob McEwen by only a few percentage points. However, the results are suspect and the poll has largely been discredited by the fact that nearly 25% of the respondents identified themselves as not being Republican, among other sampling issues.

Congresswoman Schmidt raised $115,663 this past period and a total of $305,721 this cycle. The Schmidt Campaign spent about $160,000 during the period and a total of about $287,000 for the election cycle. Major expenses included $57,422 for TV advertising. Congresswoman Schmidt's major endorsements include nearly every Pro-Life organization, Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, Majority Leader John Boehner, and the National Rifle Association. Congresswoman Schmidt had $116,985 on hand.Conclusion, despite attacks on and questions about Congresswoman Schmidt's educational record and endorsement flaps with Congressman Chabot, it appears that Congresswoman Schmidt will handily defeat the challenger, Bob McEwen. McEwen will have a tough time making up 20 or more points in the polls, especially given his funding disadvantage and the revelations about his residency, voter registration history, and lobbying efforts. The big question is whether certain McEwen supporters will urge Republicans to not vote in the general election, like they did in the Special Election held last year.

UPDATE: The April 25th edition of the Evans-Novak Political Report indicates concurrence with the Rink Report's conclusion. From the Evans-Novak Report:" We had expected McEwen to make greater strides by this time, particularly given Schmidt's repeated episodes of self-destructive behavior nearly every week of the campaign. But we see little evidence of this beyond a McEwen-sponsored poll that puts him within the margin of error. Public polling seems to confirm the picture of the race painted by Schmidt's campaign, in which she leads by more than 20 points. It seems odd for Schmidt to poll at above 50 percent when her name identification within the district is barely that high."